ニュースNews

JMC conducts cherry blossom (Yoshino cherry) flowering forecasts for approximately 1000 famous cherry blossom viewing locations throughout Japan, spanning from Hokkaido to Kagoshima. Before the flowering forecasts for the 2020 season are announced, information currently available (temperatures from autumn to spring) has been incorporated to estimate dormancy breaking trends and examine the outlook for flowering dates.
Furthermore, the average full bloom dates and past full-bloom dates have been summarized as reference information.

Dormancy breaking trends for the 2020 cherry blossom season have been predicted using available and forecasted temperatures from autumn to winter, to deliberate the outlook for the cherry blossom flowering dates.

Cherry blossoms buds appear during the summer before the year they are set to bloom. The buds are initially dormant, and are awakened from that dormant state by the low temperatures during autumn to spring, until the buds awaken fully from their dormancy (dormancy breaking). After the dormancy breaking, the buds enter their growth stage and progresses toward flowering as the temperatures rise.

Northern Japan: October saw higher temperatures than usual. November temperatures were within the normal range. December to January is expected to be normal for that time of year, and February to March is expected to be warmer than usual.
Eastern Japan: October saw much higher temperatures than usual. November saw higher temperatures than usual. December to February is expected to be warmer than usual, and March will be considerably warmer than usual.
Western Japan: October saw much higher temperatures than usual. November saw higher temperatures than usual. December to February is expected to be warmer than usual, and March will considerably warmer than usual.

*There is a possibility of flowering/full bloom dates changing greatly according to shifts in temperature patterns during February 2020 forward.

This is the average full bloom dates for cherry blossoms. This graph is based on the observation data of sample trees (the average between 1981 and 2010) by the Japan Meteorological Agency. *This is not a forecast.

The full bloom dates for cherry blossoms in Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka for the past 20 years.

Yoshino Cherry is one of the major cherry blossom tree types in Japan, and can be seen all over the country—lining streets, in parks and at schools. The flowering forecast for cherry blossoms by JMC is also based on this type of tree.
On average, flowering starts around mid-March in early locations, and at the end of April to the beginning of May in Hokkaido, where flowering dates are the latest. The flower petals are a pale pink color and bloom before leaves appear on the tree, creating a beautiful sight at full bloom with no green leaves to be seen.
Yoshino Cherries are garden trees created by crossbreeding wild cherry trees (Oshima Cherry and Edo-higan), and all Yoshino trees in existence today are clones created from grafting or cuttings from the original tree.
The Yoshino Cherry can be seen from Hokkaido to Kyushu, but not in areas with subtropical climates south of Kagoshima Prefecture, as the winter temperatures do not become cold enough for blooming (10°C or lower). For this reason, there are no Yoshino Cherry trees in Okinawa Prefecture; instead, Taiwan Cherry trees (Winter Cherry trees) fit for subtropical zones are popular. These trees usually bloom in January. What is more, as some regions in Hokkaido experience severe cold during the winter, making Yoshino Cherry tree cultivation difficult, Sargent’s Cherry trees (or North Japanese Hill Cherry), which are more resistant to cold weather are often planted as roadside trees. The blooming season for Sargent’s Cherry trees is usually around May.

JMC has devised its own method for forecasting flowering and full bloom dates based on existing research on the forecasting of flowering and full bloom dates for Somei Yoshino (Yoshino Cherry) trees. JMC estimates the flowering and full bloom dates for each area based on low temperatures during autumn and winter, cherry tree growth status, cumulative temperatures, and past data for each area.

Forecasted flowering and full bloom dates for approximately 1,000 cherry blossom viewing locations across Japan "Otenki Navigator" cherry blossom navigator
(At present, cherry blossom forecast for 2020 has not yet been published.)

App "Sakura Navi - Forecast in 2020"（available in the near future）