Release of 2020 Cherry Blossom Forecast (10th forecast)
April 2, 2020
On April 2, 2020, JMC released its 10th forecast of the dates when cherry blossoms will start to flower (kaika) and reach full bloom (mankai). JMC has estimated the flowering and full bloom dates for Somei Yoshino (Yoshino Cherry) trees in approximately 1,000 cherry blossom viewing locations in cities from Hokkaido to Kagoshima.
In order to mitigate coronavirus infection, JMC ended the release of forecasts for cherry blossom flowering and full bloom dates in 2020 on April 2, which might attract people to cherry blossom viewing sites.
Thank you for your understanding and hope you stay safe.
"Cherry Blossom Flowering Forecast Map" shows dates of flowering but not of full bloom.
2020 Forecast of flowering and full bloom dates for each area
［10th forecast announced on April 2, 2020］
||Forecasted flowering date
||Flowering deviation (days)
||Forecasted full bloom date
||Full bloom deviation (days)
||Flowering date in average year
The flowering or full bloom is announced.
JMC's Method for Forecasting Cherry Blossom Flowering Dates
The mechanism of cherry blossom flowering
The flowering and full bloom dates of cherry blossoms depend on the temperature patterns from autumn of the preceding year. The buds of cherry blossoms are formed during the summer of the preceding year. Before they flower, they must go through two processes: dormancy and growth. Buds do not start growing as soon as they are formed; they first enter a period of dormancy. Dormancy allows the buds to survive the winter, with its cold weather and short days. This phenomenon is not exclusive to cherry trees. In temperate zones, many kinds of plant certain levels (between -5 and 15 degrees centigrade) during the autumn and winter period, trees awaken from their dormancy in anticipation of the approaching spring. After breaking dormancy, the buds enter the growth stage, and grow as the temperatures increase to flowering. During this stage, the higher the temperature is, the better the growth rate will be.
During dormancy, buds do not show any visible development. However, once they enter the growth stage, they will grow increasingly large as the moment of flowering draws nearer. Eventually, their tips will turn a yellowish green color. Just before they start to flower, it will be possible to make out their petals.
JMC has devised its own method for forecasting flowering and full bloom dates based on existing research on the forecasting of flowering and full bloom dates for Somei Yoshino (Yoshino Cherry) trees.
JMC estimates the flowering and full bloom dates for each area based on low temperatures during autumn and winter, cherry tree growth status, cumulative temperatures, and past data for each area.